The annual Generation Capacity Statement (GCS) from Eirgrid, which explores electricity demand in the decade 2022 to 2031, warns of a challenging outlook due to capacity deficits.
Eirgrid, which oversees electricity delivery infrastructure, believes that in the short term the deficits will increase due to the deteriorating availability of power plants.
“Our analysis shows that further new electricity generation will be required to secure the transition to high levels of renewable electricity over the coming decades,” the report states.
“A balanced portfolio of new capacity is required and this includes the need for new cleaner gas fired generation plant which are renewable gas ready, especially at times when the wind and solar generation is low.
“This balanced portfolio is also crucial to ensuring Ireland meets its carbon budgets between now and 2030 for the electricity sector, which positions the electricity sector to achieve the zero net carbon target by 2050,
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“Furthermore, by 2030 there will be significant new additional load from the heat and transport sectors as they are electrified.”
In the CGS, Eirgrid chief executive Mark Foley comments that since 2016 the company has warned of an increasing tightness between supply and demand.
“There is no question that the current outlook, based on the best information available, is serious. It is likely that in the coming years we will experience system alerts and will need to work proactively to mitigate the risk of more serious impacts,” says Foley.
“This GCS report, while stark in its assessment, will allow the industry, government, regulators and other stakeholders to support us in securing the transition to renewable energy and support social and economic growth into the future while proactively managing the supply demand balance.”
Poor generator performance
Eirgrid’s analysis in the CGS finds that generator performance continues to be poor. Some generation capacity, due to close in September 2023, is not available for 2022 and 2023.
Furthermore, 365MW of previously awarded capacity has been withdrawn and the developers have paid termination charges. This is in addition to the previous 266MW which terminated.
“This means that most new predictable capacity that was expected to come online over the coming years has now withdrawn,” the report states.
In addition, two new Open Cycle Gas Turbines may have limitations imposed on their run hours due to restrictions in their planning application or environmental permits.
On the demand side, Eirgrid has uplifted its data centre sector demand levels around 140MW higher by 2030 than previous forecasts.
Eirgrid’s view outlined in the CGS is that the electricity industry will have to find new ways to meet the increasing need for energy without relying mainly on burning fossil fuels.
The report states: “Looking out to 2030 electricity demand is set to increase as consumers use electricity in new ways.
“New government policies are expected to help guide us away from fossil fuels toward alternative heating methods, such as electric heat pumps, and cleaner modes of transport, such as electric vehicles.
“This changing demand and generation supply landscape for the island will require coordinated management of both the volume and type of new capacity, alongside new ways of managing increasing demand to ensure security of supply.”
For its own part, Eirgrid concedes that it must make the electricity grid stronger and more flexible.
According to Mark Foley: “Given the scale of change, there is a need to plan for a great deal of new grid infrastructure, such as underground cables, pylons and substations.”
