UK parcel delivery company ParcelHero says this Black Friday is likely to see overall UK online and high street spending growth stall.

Since hitting the UK with a bang in 2010, Black Friday has gone on to create new spending records every year. However, ParcelHero is forecasting zero spending growth on Black Friday this year.

David Jinks, head of consumer research, commented: “In the early years stores such as Tesco and Asda were forced to lock their doors, such was the demand, while more recently it has grown online at 12% annually.

“In 2018 Black Friday made a record £2.4bn, including online sales of £1.4 bn. This year we believe disillusioned online shoppers will join high street shoppers in losing interest in Black Friday, leading to no overall growth for the first time in its barnstorming ten-year history.”

Jinks added: “Online shoppers now know sites are pacing their offers over not just the day or the weekend, or even the whole week; we’ve seen a whole fortnight of ‘warm up’ offers. Even Black Friday’s prime instigator, Amazon, couldn’t wait beyond last Friday to kick off its Black Friday sale.

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“Endless rolling offers take away from the slight thrill of logging on this Friday and zeroing in on some genuinely great bargains. Black Friday has become a dull month of stock clearance; and internet shoppers are unlikely to be breaking any records this year.

"People are clearly still ordering and sending presents when they see a genuine bargain, and we’re certainly expecting a healthy overall peak Christmas season; it’s just besieged Black Friday that will see zero growth.”

Ireland's Black Friday 

The UK courier’s Black Friday scepticism is not shared by PwC, which commissioned online research of 1,000 consumers from Opinium Research. PwC is predicting:

• Average spend over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday period in Ireland will be €251 per consumer.

• One in three Irish consumers will spend over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday period. A further 47% are interested if they can source a good deal.

•  One in three who intend to shop over the Black Friday/ Cyber Monday period will buy up to a quarter of of their Christmas gifts; one in four buy up to half of their Christmas gifts.

•  62% of Black Friday weekend shopping in Ireland will be online, 38% will be in-store.

•  One in five consumers will search strategically for the exact brand and product they want.

•  15% say there is too much advertising in the lead up to Black Friday and 20% have no interest in Black Friday/Cyber Monday spending.

AIB's analysis points to a different outcome as to spend location. The bank analysed c. one million debit card transactions effected on Black Friday 2018 and found that last year 69% of shopper spend was in-store versus 31% spending online.