A massive increase in exports prior to the September 1 activation of tariffs on goods sold to the US has sparked a surge in Irish economic growth, writes Ken Murray.

Ireland’s GDP was up 17% in the 12 months to June, the latest figures from Bank of Ireland show.

The bank says in its latest Economics Weekly update: “This week’s Irish data saw growth up to June 2025 revised up from -1% in the preliminary release, to a soft 0.2% gain.

“However, the value of product produced in Ireland was still up 17% in the year to June.

“The surge in exports and multinational sector output in early 2025 not only reflected the front-running of US tariffs, but also new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online and past investments in intellectual property assets.

“Hence, we will need to revise up our forecast for Irish economic growth in 2025 from 8% currently, into double digit territory,” it said.

Domestic economic demand – up 4.4% in the year to June 2025 – is also ahead of projections, thanks to consumer spending, up 3.2%, public spending up 5% and core investment up 7.1%.

This includes a welcome rebound in investment spending on residential and non-residential construction.

“We will need to revise up our forecast for modified domestic demand growth in 2025, from 2.9% currently, towards 3.5%,” Bank of Ireland said.

Irish exports rose by 9.4% in the first three months of the year but fell by 4% between April and June – the bank says that in June, exports were €17.5bn, up 4.8% on the previous 12 months.

“We will need to revise up our current forecast for Irish Gross Domestic Product growth in 2025 from 8% currently, to likely somewhere in the range of 10-15%.

“However, domestic demand has also beaten expectations, helped by buoyant Government expenditure and a welcome rebound in non-residential construction output.”