Debt is no longer an economic risk; it is a cap on national ambition and corporate opportunity.

Global public debt surpassed roughly US$102 trillion in 2024, a structural burden now reshaping national spending choices (IMF, 2025; UNCTAD, 2025).

High debt is no longer background noise; it is a sorting mechanism for which sectors receive sustained fiscal support.

Defence, energy security, and digital infrastructure are being crowded in (BIS, 2025).

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) analysis notes steepening at the long end of some sovereign curves even as policy rates ease, reflecting expectations for sustained borrowing, potential inflation pressure, and higher risk premia (BIS, 2025).

Looking to 2028, the base case is continued crowding towards security- and resilience-linked outlays, including renewal of ageing infrastructure.

While near-term refinancing pressures have eased for many emerging markets, vulnerabilities persist where deep local markets are absent (World Bank, 2025).

For multinationals, the question is no longer “Is the government spending?” but “Is the government spending on my sector?”

Alignment can open durable capital windows. Misalignment can raise premiums or lead to subsidy withdrawal.

3 - Climate Capitalism and the Geopolitics of Subsidy

4 - Digital Finance Wars: Owning Your Capital Rails

5 - Europe’s Experiment in Fiscal Sovereignty

6 - Access as Strategy: Engineering the Capital Architecture