Ibec's Global Compass report Navigating Polarisation: Business Leadership in a Fragmented World explores how businesses can lead through growing ideological and cultural divides—not by avoiding complexity, but by adapting to it.

Political allegiances and economic identities are realigning.

Traditional alliances between business, political elites, and regulatory bodies are shifting—upended by growing populism, economic nationalism and demands for protectionism.

In the 2024 US election, Democrats gained more support from high-income voters, while lower-income voters swung toward Donald Trump.

In Europe, far-right parties posted record gains in the 2024 European Parliament elections, riding working-class discontent.

In Brazil and Argentina, political pendulums have led to policy reversals on trade, environment, and labour regulation.

Across ASEAN, shifting trade and security dynamics are reconfiguring relations with both China and the West.

These changes, which reshape party lines along with social trends, come with new advocacy and influence dynamics that directly impact business relations with governments.

Promises leaders made during the campaign trail to their constituents, such as fighting culture wars, reversing political correctness, enhancing protectionism, or defending the working class, now guide both discourse and policy actions.

These movements are not isolated.

They reflect deeper societal currents: concern over identity, inequality, sovereignty, and economic security.

Global frameworks such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, once broadly accepted, are increasingly framed as detached or technocratic.

Even in China, where central control remains firm, the domestic agenda has turned sharply toward national resilience and internal demand, creating new engagement rules for international firms.

New leaders understand how to leverage the direct connection between major international agendas and their concrete effects on daily life, which contribute to the perception of fragmentation and ultimate erosion of the societal fabric.

Businesses must understand that legacy access is no longer enough. Influence must be earned in new arenas, with new actors.

Particularly during a time when the allies of yesterday may no longer be the gatekeepers of tomorrow.

READ MORE FROM THIS REPORT:

Polarised Societies, Real Business Risks

Policy Volatility: Strategic Discipline in a Rapid-Fire World

Trust: The Strategic Asset in a Distrustful World

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