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Commercial vacancy rate trends upwards

/ 28th February 2023 /
Robert O’Brien

The national commercial vacancy rate increased marginally by 10 basis points to 14.0% in the year to Q4 2022 according to GeoDirectory.

The vacancy rate is the highest level recorded by GeoDirectory since it commenced collecting data in 2013.

The Commercial Vacancy Rates Report, prepared by EY, found that commercial vacancies increased in 18 out of 26 counties.

Sligo, at 19.6%, was the county with the highest commercial vacancy rate, followed by Galway (17.6%) and Donegal (17.5%). The west of the country continued to record high commercial vacancy rates in Q4 2022, with the 17.6% figure for Connacht up 30 basis points on the same period in 2021.

Meath (10.2%) remained as the county with the lowest commercial vacancy rate in the state, followed by Wexford (10.4%) and Kerry (12.2%.

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In Dublin, the commercial vacancy rate was unchanged from Q4 2021 at a rate of 12.9%, which remains the highest level recorded in Dublin since Q4 2016.

GeoDirectory released its first Commercial Vacancy Rates Report in January 2013. The vacancy rate then was 11.4%, 3.9 percentage points lower than the 14.0% rate recorded in Q4 2022.

With the exception of Dublin, every county has experienced an increase in commercial vacancy rates over the past decade.

Donegal, at 5.5 percentage points, registered highest increase in commercial vacancy rates as a percentage of stock between January 2013 and December 2022 (12.0% to 17.5%).

The latest GeoDirectory report examined vacancy rates among a sample of 80 towns.

It found that Shannon, Co. Clare was the town with the highest rate in Q4 2022, at 29.8%. Ballybofey, Co. Donegal (29.2%), Edgeworthstown, Co. Longford (28.4%), Boyle, Co. Roscommon (27.7%), and Sligo Town (25.4%) completed the top five towns by highest commercial vacancy rate.

Gorey, Co. Wexford and Greystones, Co. Wicklow were the towns with the lowest commercial vacancy rate in the country, at 7.1% each.

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Aerial over Dublin

Within the Dublin area, Dublin 17 recorded the largest year-on-year increase in vacancy, growing by 1.5% to 14.6%. Dublin 9 had the highest vacancy rate of 17.2%, increasing by 0.4% from Q4 2021.

The Dublin postcode with the lowest vacancy rate was Dublin 15, at 7.1%. Nine out of the 22 Dublin areas recorded a decrease in vacancy rates, with 16 recording vacancy rates below the national average of 14%.

Dara Keogh, chief executive of GeoDirectory predicted that the commercial vacancy rate will continue to trend upwards as working-from-home becomes more formalised, combined with the growth of online retail and services, resulting in businesses requiring less physical space than previously.

Annette Hughes, director of EY Economic Advisory Services, referenced the notable drop in the number of Service and Retail & Wholesale units, “which points to the ongoing challenges these sectors face due to evolving economic trends and geopolitical uncertainties”.

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