Former housing minister Darragh O’Brien did not consult with his officials prior to telling coalition leaders 40,000 new homes would be built in 2024, writes Craig Hughes.

This is despite officials advising him days earlier that the “most accurate” forecaster was predicting between 30,000 and 33,000 new homes.

The Irish Daily Mail previously revealed that Mr O’Brien wrote to the three then-coalition leaders – Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Simon Harris and Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman – on August 21 last year, stating he expected delivery close to 40,000.

“Estimates from independent analysts show we are on track to exceed our housing targets for 2024 and I estimate we will approach 40,000 units in 2024,” Mr O’Brien wrote.

The letter was the basis for the Government’s election promise that 40,000 new homes would be built last year.

However, figures from the Central Statistics Office published in January showed that just 30,330 new homes were built.

In response to a Freedom of Information request, the Department of Housing said it had “no records” of any correspondence between Mr O’Brien and his senior officials prior to the minister penning the letter.

The records also show there were no draft versions of the letter.

Asked if there was any verbal discussion about the letter, a spokesman for the department confirmed that officials had no input into it.

He added: “The minister’s correspondence with the coalition leaders in August reflected his expectation of delivery in 2024.

“Department officials did not advise or engage with the minister on the matter of this correspondence.”

Mr O’Brien’s officials advised him days before he wrote the letter to coalition leaders that a firm that had been the most accurate at predicting housing output had forecast that between 30,000 and 33,000 homes would be complete, The Irish Times previously reported.

Officials had compiled a list of ten completion forecasts by independent experts.

There were three references to 40,000 but the average of the predictions amounted to 36,200.

Housing sales website Daft.ie projected between 35,000 and 40,000 while estate agents Hooke & MacDonald and Deutsche Numis, the research arm of Deutsche Bank, both predicted 40,000.

However, Mr O’Brien’s officials drew attention to the forecast of French bank BNP Paribas, which had forecast that between 30,000 and 33,000 new homes would be built last year.

“Notably, BNP Paribas forecasts have been the most accurate in recent years and they suggest reaching the target this year will be challenging,” they wrote.

In February, Mr Harris told RTÉ’s Today With Claire Byrne that the figure should not have been provided to him and the other coalition leaders at the time.

The Fine Gael leader refuted claims he and his Government colleagues “misled the public” as he said he did not know the information he received in “good faith” was inaccurate.

Asked if the figure should have been provided, Mr Harris agreed “they should have given the figure”.

Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin was not surprised Mr O’Brien acted alone in telling the leaders 40,000 homes would be built, but said it shouldn’t have been repeated during the election.

“I am not at all surprised by the revelation as Darragh O’Brien’s time as Minister for Housing was characterised by a slipshod and dishonest approach to data designed more to mislead than to inform,” he said.

“However, Micheál Martin, Simon Harris, Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers continued to repeat the minister’s 40,000 homes lie long after their own advisers and CSO data made clear it wasn’t possible.

“So Darragh O’Brien may have been guilty of the original sin, but the sin was repeated ad nauseam right up to polling day.”

Apart from failing on the overall delivery aims, the Government also missed its targets for social and affordable housing.

A total of 9,300 new-build social homes was targeted under the Government’s Housing For All plan.

These are homes directly built by local authorities or approved housing bodies (AHBs).

However, the figures show that just 7,871 were delivered, a shortfall of 1,429 (15%).

This is lower than in 2023 when 8,110 new-build social homes were built.

It means the Government has now missed its target for the delivery of new-build social homes in 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

The Government had set a target of 2,130 homes to be leased for social housing but delivered just 1,223, a 43% shortfall.

When the figures were published, current Housing Minister James Browne included homes that have not yet been built or acquired by the State in affordable housing.

Mr Browne claimed “7,126 affordable housing options were delivered” in 2024, 726 ahead of the target.

An analysis of the figures shows this includes 2,851 homes delivered under the Government’s First Home Scheme.

However, a footnote in the data states that the figures include “approvals” to the scheme by the end of 2024 and not drawdowns, purchases or actual new builds under the scheme.

The one area where the Government hit its target was in relation to social acquisition, with 1,501 homes achieved, one ahead of the target.

These are existing homes bought by local authorities or AHBs.

Latest homelessness figures published show there were 15,418 people living in emergency accommodation in Ireland, including 4,653 children, at the end of March.

Mr Browne is expected to unveil his own plan for solving the housing crisis in July.