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House prices now nearly eight times the average income

House Price
/ 3rd January 2023 /
Christian McCashin

Homebuyers are more financially stretched now than in over a decade, as the average house prices are almost eight times the average income.

The average property sale in the autumn was €370,000, some 7.7 times the average income of €48,000, the latest report from Myhome.ie released last night shows.

That rate is well above what the Government's Housing Agency quotes as "severely unaffordable" - a rate of five times the average income to become a home owner.

Price hikes are beginning to cool marginally in the face of a series of interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank, but houses are selling faster now than they have in years. The report found home sales were completed in just 2.7 months nationwide, or 80 days, a rate not seen since 2011.

A property sale would previously have taken almost double that time and "averaged over four months consistently between 2016-2021" and the quicker rate is "indicative of a very tight housing market", Myhome.ie found. There are also are fears that further difficulties abound as the Central Bank is now easing mortgage lending rules - allowing first-time buyers a mortgage on four times their salary - which could drive house prices up further.

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Houses are getting out of reach even for people on good salaries and good jobs, said housing campaigner David Hall. "These people are also renting so their ability to save for a deposit is also being eroded by high rents," he said.

Report author Conall MacCoille, Davy stockbrokers' chief economist, said: "The number of vendors cutting their asking prices is still at low levels. Also, transactions in Q4 were still being settled above asking prices, indicative of a tight market.

"There are 15,000 properties listed for sale on Myhome.ie, an improvement from the beginning of 2022 but below pre-pandemic levels exceeding 20,000. The average time to sale agreed in Q4 was just 2.7 months, still close to historic lows. We expect transactions will exceed €21bn in 2022, up 7.5% in volume terms on 2021."

He warned buyers were stretched to a degree not seen since 2009, remarking: "The average residential transaction in Q3 2022 was €370,000, now 7.7x the average income of €48,000. This is a similar valuation multiple to the UK, where house prices are now falling due to a surge in mortgage rates above 6%."

Mr MacCoille said already stretched valuations "could be exacerbated by the Central Bank's decision to ease mortgage lending rules to four times' income".

He added that recent months had seen worrying trends in the homebuilding sector, with housing starts slowing, and the construction survey pointing to the flow of new development drying up. "We still expect housing completions will pick up to 28,400 in 2022 and 27,000 in 2023. However, the outlook for 2024 is far more uncertain. The Government's ambitious plans to expedite planning processes are welcome although, as ever, the proof will be in the pudding."

Myhome.ie managing director Joanne Geary said sellers' sentiment had been somewhat affected by rising costs and interest rates.

"Over 3% of all properties on Myhome.ie saw asking price reductions in Q4, a low rate but even still the highest figure since Q3 2020," she said. "However, asking prices tend to fall toward the end of the year; for example, declining by 1.1% on average in the last quarter pre-pandemic. While asking price increases have cooled, the market has still remained remarkably resilient despite the uncertain environment."

She said stock levels were a cause for concern. "Stock levels are improving but are still not running at the levels we need to see in order to satisfy demand. As such, we hope to see inflationary pressures ease in the construction sector over the coming months."

The Government's Housing Agency recently quoted a study that rates "affordable" property prices as three times income and under, while the "severely unaffordable" measure was five times.

House prices
Average income
Eoin Ó Broin said: "The problem is every report shows house prices continue to rise." Photograph: Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie

Sinn Féin's housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin said: "The problem is every report shows house prices continue to rise. There has been some discussion as to whether interest rate rises are going to see the rate of increase slow, a 5% or a 10% increase is still a significant increase on house prices that are already out of control.

"There is nothing to indicate that house prices are going to fall and all of the indicators are that prices are going to continue to rise over the course of the coming year. Far too little of the houses that are being brought on stream are affordable.... So it's not just a matter of supply, it's also a matter of the right kind of supply."

Housing expert John McCartney, director of research at Europe's largest bank BNP, said he was "not surprised" that the house-price-to-income ratio has risen so sharply. He said: "The good news is that there is a slowdown in house-price inflation that we would probably expect to continue for the next six months, after that it is uncertain, I would say. The remaining question is, can income growth maintain or even exceed current levels of 3% or 3.5%."

Housing campaigner Mr Hall, of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation, said: "There's a very short period of time of houses going sale agreed, 2.7 months. They're going very quickly, there's 15,000 properties on the market, more than there were last year but it's nowhere near what it was before the pandemic. An average of 7.7 times your income would be a concern for anybody."

In the final three months of 2022, asking-price inflation fell slightly by 0.4% nationally, which Mr Hall described as "a modest cooling off". He added the price paid involves people "bringing a lot of money to the table".

Mr Hall said: "There are challenging times ahead and the market isn't doing anything dramatic... but any market that requires someone to have 7.5 times their income to buy a house is fraught with danger."

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