Leo Varadkar has said there is a "legitimate question" to be asked over an apparent 6,000-unit discrepancy in the number of new houses completed last year.
The Government's official figure, supplied by the Central Statistics Office and based on electricity connections, is that 29,851 homes were delivered in 2022, higher than its 25,000 target.
But an analysis by the consultant firm Construction Information Services, claims that there were 23,751 completions last year, 6,100 fewer than the official figure. It based its analysis on figures from the National Building Control Office (NBCO), a body under the remit of Minister Darragh O'Brien's Housing Department.
Mr Varadkar told the Dáil yesterday there was a "legitimate question" over the discrepancy, but that he would tend to side with the CSO figures. He was quizzed on the issue by Social Democrats housing spokesman Cian O'Callaghan, who asked him to explain the gap when NBCO numbers are "highly reliable". The NBCO records all buildings that architects certify as complete.
The discrepancy may even be larger - the Construction Information Services analysis does not include possible anomalies in the number of stand-alone homes as it gathers this information from the office's publicly available Building Control Management System every week.
CIS said in its report: "At the end of the first year of their commendable Housing for All plan, the Government claims to have exceeded their target of building 25,000 new homes by almost 20%, by delivering 29,851 units in 2022.
"However, housing data published by Construction Information Services (CIS) paint a less encouraging picture, with just 23,751 new dwellings completed - 95% of target - suggesting that more work needs to be done by the Government to deliver against their targets. Given the current housing crisis, this suggests that there is an urgent need for an accurate and dependable method for determining the true housing supply figures in Ireland."
CIS said its figures are drawn directly from the NBCO's Building Control Management System (BCMS), which records details of the commencement and completion of building works in Ireland.
CIS research manager Scott Delaney said it's "difficult to reconcile the discrepancy". "The BCMS figures we collate are painstakingly recorded by our research team from individual completion transactions published.
"In many cases, we manually count the numbers of units on each phase or revert to the original planning documents to see the number of units granted in apartment blocks.
"These figures are rigorously checked and I'm fully confident in the veracity of our data based on the BCMS register," he said.
Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin O Broin TD, has called on Minister O'Brien to explain the discrepancy. He said: "Since 2019, it has been assumed that the quarterly CSO home completion figures are accurate and free from political manipulation.
"This week, however, Construction Information Services have released an independent analysis of building completion data indicating that the number of new homes delivered in 2022 is significantly lower than that claimed by the CSO and government.
"Today I have written to the Minister for Housing Darragh O'Brien asking him to provide a detailed reply to the Oireachtas Housing Committee on the claim by CIS. If the CSO data is correct, then Minister O'Brien must provide a clear and satisfactory analysis explaining why CIS are wrong. I look forward to Minister O'Brien's response," he said.
Social Democrats housing spokesman Mr O'Callaghan said there is a "huge discrepancy" in the figures. "Clearly, the CSO figures paint a more flattering picture for the Government and the Minister for Housing has been quick to boast about the number of home completions for 2022 exceeding the original 24,600 target. Despite patting themselves on the back, it now appears that these figures may have been grossly inflated," he said.
A spokesperson for Minister O'Brien accused Mr O Broin of trying to politicise and discredit CSO figures. "The CSO are an independent body and they have responsibility for the compilation of the new dwellings completion statistics. It's quite clear from his comments that Deputy O Broin is attempting to politicise and cast a shadow over the Central Statistics Office reporting."
A Department of Housing spokesman said it is "important to recognise the Building Control Management System was not designed for statistical reporting". "The CSO has responsibility for the compilation of the new dwellings completion statistics, and their website explains exactly how the data-set is compiled.
In a statement yesterday, the CSO said that when it took over compiling the New Dwelling Completions series in 2018, it investigated the suitability of various data sets and "determined that adjusted ESB connection data was the most suitable to use".
A spokesman for the CSO said: "In response to the publication of analysis by Construction Information Services, the CSO previously analysed the Certificates of Compliance on Completion from the Building Control Management System but found that it not only was missing one-off single houses, of which there were more than 5,500 in 2022, it also lacked a consistent method of data collection, as information is entered by individual architects or developers.
"In addition, there was also a concern around a potential time lag between the connection to the electricity network and the full certification of completion process which could lead to an understatement of completions in that period."