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Q&A: What will the US tariffs mean for Ireland and our exports

Investment
/ 4th April 2025 /
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With the US tariffs of 20% hitting the EU alone, Ireland and the rest of the globe is staring down the barrel of a fundamentally reorganised world order.

It is going to reshape and remould the world in ways we cannot imagine.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has now repeatedly reached for the refrain of saying the “world has changed” and that the “old order has gone” but the “new order has not yet been determined”.

But what are the essentials that you need to know?

WHAT IS A TARIFF?

Business Bulletin

A tariff is effectively a tax on goods coming into a country from abroad.

This normally makes the goods more expensive for consumers as companies pass on the cost of the tariff.

Because they push up the cost of imports, tariffs are used to give home-grown industries an advantage over foreign competitors.

WHEN ARE THE TARIFFS TAKING EFFECT?

The 25% tariff on automobiles exported to the US is already in effect.

That does not impact Ireland in any real sense as we do not have that industry in our country.

But the Germans will be trying to figure out their next step as they have a large automobile industry. Otherwise the 20% EU tariff will come into effect on April 9, next Wednesday.

WHAT IS MR TRUMP’S STRATEGY?

Trump has said other nations have “ripped off” the US for decades and that his tariffs are designed to “make America wealthy again”.

He has claimed that making it more expensive to import goods into America will mean more products will be made inside the country.

Additionally, it is hoped the measures will raise trillions of dollars that can help pay for deep tax cuts.

Trump aide Peter Navarro said the tariffs will raise €5.3trillion, although a lot of the pain in the form of higher prices is likely to fall on US shoppers and businesses.

WHEN AND HOW DOES THE EU REACT?

The EU has been preparing for this for a long time and already has some old tariff measures in place from the last time Trump was in charge in the United States.

This includes a first package of tariffs on up to €26bn of US goods for mid-April in response to American steel and aluminium tariffs that took effect on March 12.

However, from this point onwards things get more difficult.

Getting all 27 EU member states on board with a response package will be a tricky task.

Each country has their own industries that they will seek to protect. Ireland has pharmaceuticals, but also domestic industries such as butter and whiskey.

The Taoiseach said Ireland will “not be shy” in making its case but neither will other EU members.

The EU has indicated that it is open to negotiating with the US between now and April 9.

However, it remains unclear whether or not the White House is interested in negotiating in good faith. It is after this point that the EU will seek to react and it is more willing than countries such as Australia to hit back at the United States.

WHAT IS IRELAND WORRIED ABOUT IN TERMS OF THE EU RESPONSE?

Micheal Martin has already indicated that he is opposed to a digital services tax being implemented as a response to the tariffs, which would hurt our tech sector.

Ireland will also be concerned about the EU imposing tariffs on American goods such as bourbon, which would likely see a response from the US on EU alcoholic products, which would affect Irish whiskey.

WHAT IS THE EU WORRIED ABOUT?

One largely unremarked-upon potential problem for the EU is the fact that the tariffs imposed by Trump apply all across the world and are significantly higher in Southeast Asian countries in particular.

If these countries cannot sell their goods into the American market, they may switch focus to the EU, flooding certain sectors and reducing prices for certain goods – which could lower prices for consumers, but would be damaging for European businesses.

SHOULD WE WORRY ABOUT PRICE RISES?

In short, yes. Tariffs are an additional tax on goods, plain and simple.

Businesses will have to decide in time, if the EU does impose reciprocal tariffs, whether or not to carry the cost themselves, pass it along to other businesses in their supply chain, or ultimately to the consumer.

The tariffs imposed by Trump have been estimated to increase costs for the average American consumer by more than $2,500 per annum.

WHAT ARE THE WORST CASE SCENARIOS?

We have forgotten about it now, but Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol if the EU hits back with tariffs on US drinks.

To put it mildly this would eviscerate much of Ireland’s whiskey industry, resulting in thousands of job losses.

The ESRI, alongside the Department of Finance, has already indicated that around 80,000 jobs are at risk.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe this week could not rule out a recession in Ireland if the situation escalates beyond control.

MY SON WORKS AT A U.S. TECH MULTINATIONAL – SHOULD HE BE WORRIED ABOUT HIS JOB?

In the short term, probably not. In the medium term, quite possibly.

It is hard at this point to determine quite how much activity US multinationals would ultimately move back to the America.

The reality also remains that they will need to retain a strong foothold in Ireland to be able to access the European Single Market.

HOW WILL THE 10% TARIFF IN THE NORTH VERSUS THE 20% TARIFF IN THE REPUBLIC WORK?

This is one of the currently unresolved questions. While the North is in the single market for the UK, it is in the customs union of the EU.

This raises questions that are as yet unanswered by the American policy announcement.

For example, what would happen to a cheesemaker in Newry that buys milk from Monaghan to make its produce? We simply don’t know.

WHAT GOODS DO WE EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES ANYWAY?

Ireland exported €72.6bn of goods to the United States last year.

Some 44% of our exports to the US are pharmaceutical goods.

But we also export almost €1bn worth of alcohol, €10bn of organic chemicals, €4bn of scientific equipment and €1bn of transport equipment.

Meat and dairy products account for around €700m.

US tariffs
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has now repeatedly reached for the refrain of saying the “world has changed” and that the “old order has gone” but the “new order has not yet been determined”. Pic: Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

WHAT ARE IRISH BRANDS AND BUSINESSES SAYING ABOUT THIS?

Keogh’s crisps, for which the United States is its largest export market, appears unfazed at present.

Tom Keogh, the MD of the company, told the Irish Independent that Ireland needs to “make new friends and new trading partners”.

Kerrygold stockpiled butter in the United States ahead of the imposition of tariffs. However, the chief executive of its parent company Ornua, Conor Galvin, said: “That won’t help us for the butter we make in 2025, the cows you haven’t milked yet. So there is only so much we can do.”

The Irish Whiskey Association warned of “devastating impacts” to the sector, with food and drink among the most exposed to tariffs.

The US represents 41% of Irish drink exports every year, with the total value of the market calculated at €865m annually.

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