The Taoiseach-in-waiting is facing challenges on many fronts as the housing shortage and cost of living pressures are top of voters’ minds, writes Sharon McGowan

The coming weeks will see Micheál Martin pack up his belongings and bow out of the Taoiseach’s office after just over two tumultuous years.

While Leo Varadkar assuming office after December 15 may feel like familiar territory, the government is setting sail into uncharted waters.

Never in the history of the state has there been a mid-term handover of power, and the changeover will bring a new momentum to the government. Despite all the spin that politicians will tell you, the business of politics revolves around one thing — re-election.

In December, two and a half years out from the next vote, the Fine Gael leader will be back at the helm of a country with a severe shortage of housing, an unprecedented influx of refugees, and a challenging cost of living situation.

Any one of these issues would leave citizens feeling disillusioned with their political masters. All three combined could prove to be an unholy trinity for Mr Varadkar. And that’s without paying heed to the slowdown in economic growth forecast for next year, as tech giants freeze recruitment and stall expansion.

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Aside from the external factors, relations in the coalition are also fragile. Between Fine Gael sniping at Fianna Fáil and Fianna Fáil bickering among themselves, guiding the coalition to the next election will be a delicate balancing act for Mr Varadkar. It’s in Leo’s interests to keep Fianna Fáil onside, as sticking with FF seems to be Fine Gael’s only ticket for a return to government after the next election.

With the potential for Fianna Fáil to coalesce with Sinn Féin to form the next government, some work might need to be done to keep the Soldiers of Destiny sweet. Step number one would be for FG to back off from trying to keep Paschal Donohoe as president of the Eurogroup and allow Michael McGrath a smooth transition into the coveted finance ministry.

It’s likely that Tánaiste-in-waiting Micheál Martin will do a swap with Mr Varadkar to take over as enterprise minister, though he might step into the new Higher Education brief — a project of his own making. Whichever role he assumes, in reality Mr Martin will play second fiddle to Mr McGrath in government. And if the much talked about internal heave within Fianna Fáil comes to fruition after the changeover in December, Mr Martin will play second fiddle in his own party too.

Housing will be the make-or-break issue by the time the ballot boxes are out again. While the Taoiseach has indicated that Darragh O’Brien will remain as housing minister after the transition, the trudging pace of Fianna Fáil’s flagship Housing for All plan needs to be hurried along by Leo Varadkar if he wants to stand a chance of maintaining Fine Gael’s seat count.

Mr Varadkar will also be aware that some of Fine Gael’s old reliable seats could be in jeopardy next time, as party elders mull their voluntary departure from the Oireachtas. Bernard Durkan (77), Michael Ring (68), Charlie Flanagan (65), Richard Bruton (69), Fergus O’Dowd (74) and David Stanton (65) will be past pension age by the time the people have their say.

Meanwhile, Joe McHugh has already confirmed his departure from Fine Gael ranks, and amid local anger over the government’s response to demands for mica compensation, it’s hard to see Mr McHugh’s successor retaining the seat in Donegal.

Fine Gael and Mr Varadkar were rewarded for their Budget 2023 largesse with a bounce in the polls. Having learned his lesson from the aftermath of the stingy pre-election budget in 2019, one certainty is that the next Taoiseach will not entertain fiscal rectitude as he plots to keep Sinn Féin on the opposition benches.